Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2020-21


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
152 Hofstra 18.9%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 11 - 7 +0.7      +1.9 125 -1.2 211 68.3 198 0.0 1 0.0 1
162 College of Charleston 16.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 11 11 - 7 -0.3      -0.1 175 -0.2 174 64.3 292 0.0 1 0.0 1
163 Northeastern 15.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 11 10 - 8 -0.3      +0.1 170 -0.4 180 64.6 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
184 Towson 12.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 8 -1.3      0.0 174 -1.3 215 62.8 315 0.0 1 0.0 1
190 Drexel 10.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 11 9 - 9 -1.9      +0.2 167 -2.1 233 67.8 214 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Delaware 9.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 12 9 - 9 -2.3      +0.7 148 -3.0 261 68.8 178 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Elon 6.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 14 8 - 10 -3.9      -1.1 202 -2.7 250 64.9 278 0.0 1 0.0 1
249 James Madison 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 15 7 - 11 -5.4      -0.9 197 -4.5 301 77.8 28 0.0 1 0.0 1
253 UNC Wilmington 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 16 7 - 11 -5.7      -3.3 270 -2.4 245 69.2 167 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 William & Mary 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 17 7 - 11 -5.7      -1.8 227 -3.9 286 67.9 207 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Hofstra 3.6 26.0 17.5 13.4 10.9 9.0 7.5 5.8 4.5 3.3 2.1
College of Charleston 4.0 20.8 15.9 13.5 11.1 9.9 8.3 7.1 5.9 4.6 3.0
Northeastern 4.1 19.2 15.4 14.4 12.5 9.9 8.8 7.0 5.9 4.5 2.5
Towson 4.6 13.9 13.6 13.3 11.4 11.3 10.4 8.9 7.4 5.7 4.1
Drexel 4.9 12.0 12.4 12.3 11.8 11.3 10.1 9.6 8.2 7.0 5.2
Delaware 5.0 11.8 11.8 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 9.8 9.3 7.9 6.1
Elon 5.8 7.1 8.2 9.4 10.1 11.0 10.9 11.7 11.5 11.1 9.1
James Madison 6.5 4.7 5.6 6.8 8.0 9.1 10.5 11.8 12.7 14.5 16.4
UNC Wilmington 6.6 4.1 5.1 6.1 7.7 9.5 10.7 12.3 13.4 15.3 15.9
William & Mary 6.7 3.4 5.2 6.3 7.8 9.1 10.4 11.8 14.0 14.9 17.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Hofstra 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.8 3.6 5.5 7.0 9.3 9.9 11.2 11.3 11.4 9.3 7.4 4.8 2.7 0.9
College of Charleston 11 - 7 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.5 5.2 6.5 8.2 9.6 10.9 11.0 10.9 9.8 8.1 6.0 3.6 1.7 0.6
Northeastern 10 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.0 6.5 8.3 10.0 11.7 12.0 11.1 9.9 7.3 5.4 3.7 1.5 0.4
Towson 10 - 8 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 3.1 4.6 6.5 8.5 10.1 10.7 11.7 10.8 9.7 8.3 6.3 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.2
Drexel 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.4 7.5 8.7 10.0 10.9 11.0 11.1 9.2 7.2 5.0 3.6 1.9 0.7 0.3
Delaware 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.6 4.2 6.3 7.9 9.3 10.2 10.4 10.8 9.7 8.5 6.7 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2
Elon 8 - 10 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.1 6.0 8.2 9.9 10.9 11.0 10.6 9.7 8.6 6.7 4.6 3.2 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
James Madison 7 - 11 0.9 2.2 4.4 6.8 8.6 10.0 11.0 11.0 10.6 9.6 7.6 6.0 4.4 3.1 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1
UNC Wilmington 7 - 11 0.7 2.1 4.3 6.8 9.0 10.6 11.7 11.5 10.4 9.7 7.4 6.0 3.9 2.6 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 7 - 11 0.8 2.5 4.5 7.1 9.4 10.7 11.6 11.2 10.4 9.1 7.8 5.9 3.8 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hofstra 26.0% 18.3 6.2 1.3 0.2 0.0
College of Charleston 20.8% 14.1 5.3 1.2 0.2 0.0
Northeastern 19.2% 12.8 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Towson 13.9% 8.8 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Drexel 12.0% 7.8 3.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Delaware 11.8% 7.6 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 7.1% 4.3 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
James Madison 4.7% 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNC Wilmington 4.1% 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 3.4% 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hofstra 18.9% 18.5% 0.4% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 2.0 4.1 4.9 4.0 2.4 81.1 0.5%
College of Charleston 16.0% 15.7% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.4 4.2 3.5 2.6 84.0 0.3%
Northeastern 15.3% 15.1% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 3.0 4.1 3.5 2.8 84.7 0.2%
Towson 12.5% 12.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 87.5 0.2%
Drexel 10.6% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 2.8 3.2 89.4 0.1%
Delaware 9.7% 9.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.3 2.7 2.4 90.3 0.1%
Elon 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.9 2.1 93.3 0.0%
James Madison 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.7 95.8 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 96.3 0.0%
William & Mary 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.6 96.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hofstra 18.9% 1.4% 18.3% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 16.0% 1.5% 15.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 15.3% 1.4% 14.7% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 12.5% 1.8% 11.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 10.6% 1.7% 9.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 9.7% 1.2% 9.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 6.7% 1.2% 6.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
James Madison 4.2% 1.1% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Wilmington 3.7% 1.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 3.7% 1.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.7 1.3
1st Round 94.4% 1.0 5.6 93.7 0.8
2nd Round 9.4% 0.1 90.6 9.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.0% 0.0 98.0 2.0
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0